What Will Winter and 2022 Bring for NGL Production & Prices?
According to the experts at RBN Energy, “If there was ever a year that proves NGLs march to the beat of a different drummer, 2021 was it.” Production of NGLs went *up* during the pandemic, not down. Prices have been up, down, and all around. Like all oil and gas markets (markets of any kind, really), there is no one, specific factor or reason why NGL production and prices are doing what they are doing. It is a complex soup of factors that affect the NGL market–a market that’s increasingly vital for Marcellus/Utica producers.
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Earlier this month MDN exclusively broke the news that earlier this year (slipping under the radar) the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) issued permits to Powhatan Salt Company/Mountaineer NGL Storage for three planned solution mining wells in Monroe County (see 
Three weeks ago MDN told you that propane prices at both the wholesale and retail level were going through the roof (see 
On August 30, the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) issued permits to Powhatan Salt Company/Mountaineer NGL Storage for three planned solution mining wells in Monroe County. The three salt caverns will store NGLs (natural gas liquids, mainly ethane) to potentially be used by ethane crackers including the Shell cracker near Pittsburgh and potentially a second ethane cracker proposed by PTT Global Chemical in Belmont County. The salt caverns can also be used to store hydrogen (H2).
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, high global demand and low global supply are contributing to the rapid increase in U.S. propane spot prices. At one point last year, propane spot prices averaged just above $0.20 per gallon. Right now it’s averaging $1.33 per gallon!
The federal Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) recently issued a “warning letter” to Shell concerning the company’s ethane pipeline, called the Falcon Pipeline. PHMSA claims the pipeline committed two “probable violations” by failing to place pipeline sections at a construction site in Beaver County on protective padding. PHMSA told Shell to fix it, or else.
Have you ever noticed how politicians like to “study” things? Why is that? We suppose the results of all those studies gives them political cover to make unpopular votes on key issues. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management is in the process of conducting a study on the prospects for a petrochemical industry in the Marcellus/Utica. As part of that study, DOE held an online/virtual hearing yesterday to elicit comments on the environmental, health and community impacts of the petrochemical industry from ethane crackers and pipelines. In what appears to be a put-up job, a dog and pony show, the hearing was packed with radical anti-fossil fuel nuts who bashed away at the shale industry.
During the second quarter (May through June), ten of the largest oil and gas producers covered by S&P Global Market Intelligence saw their NGL (natural gas liquids) revenues grow substantially from the same period a year ago. Those ten companies, half of them drillers in the Marcellus/Utica region, saw NGL prices increase from 104% to as high as 261%. The extra money from NGLs made what turned out to be a down quarter financial-wise (because of bad bets on hedges) better than it would have otherwise been.
When drillers for natural gas sink a hole and methane (CH4) begins to come out of the ground, a number of other hydrocarbons come out of the ground along with it–at least in “wet gas” areas. Those other hydrocarbons include ethane (C2H6). Ethane production in some M-U wells goes as high as 6% or more of the hydrocarbons coming out. For years ethane has been a waste product, something drillers pay to dispose of–typically by “rejecting” it and slipping it into the methane stream. Increasingly ethane, which is now trading at its highest price in two-and-a-half years, has become a profit center. Why? Because it’s used to make plastics.
We’re always jazzed when we unearth information related to the Marcellus/Utica nobody else has yet discovered or highlighted. We think we’ve found something interesting related to a recently updated spreadsheet maintained by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). On Friday the EIA published a post to trumpet the news that 19 “liquids” pipeline projects are “moving toward completion in 2021.” In reviewing the list we discovered two projects related to the M-U in 2021, and a third M-U project coming in 2022. All three have an impact on the ability of M-U drillers to move NGL’s out of our region to higher-paying markets.
NGL (natural gas liquid) revenues for U.S. drillers soared in the first quarter of 2021–up 100% (i.e. doubled) over the same quarter in 2020, which was the quarter when COVID-19 began to seep into the public consciousness. In particular international demand for U.S. liquefied petroleum gas (LPG, or propane) helped propel NGL revenues higher in 1Q21. Guess which company posted the highest year-over-year increases for both NGL prices and revenues?
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2020 U.S. exports of propane reached record levels, increasing 13% and surpassing distillate fuel oil as the country’s top petroleum product export. U.S. exports of distillate fuel oil fell to its lowest level since 2016. Propane is one of the NGLs produced in (and exported from) the Marcellus/Utica.
Last fall Mountaineer NGL Storage, a $500 million project in Monroe County, OH to build underground storage for ethane and other NGLs, asked Ohio regulators to cancel a key permit for the project (see