US Propane Consumption for Winter 2022-23 Lowest Since 2010
As we explained a few weeks ago, balancing supply and demand in the propane market is challenging (see Crude & NatGas Drilling Slowing, Which Affects Propane Supplies). The problem/issue with propane (or ethane, or butane, really any NGL) is that propane and other NGLs are derivatives of oil and gas drilling. Nobody sinks a hole in the ground explicitly trying to extract propane. It comes out of the ground along with oil and natural gas. To accurately guess the coming supply of propane, one has to monitor whether oil and gas drilling is going up or down. And then there’s the demand side…
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In November 2021, the Bidenistas initiated a massive power grab to transfer the right of individual states to regulate local natural gas gathering pipelines to the federal government’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (see 
Zefiro Methane Corp.
Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage (EGTS), a subsidiary of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Energy company, provides natural gas transportation and storage services with one of the largest underground natural gas storage systems in the United States. Essentially EGTS is a pipeline network that connects to other pipelines to flow and store natural gas in six states: Maryland, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. An upgrade of an EGTS metering station in Plum (Allegheny County, PA, near Pittsburgh) is currently under construction and due to be complete “by summer.”
The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is a federally-owned electric utility corporation in the U.S. TVA’s service area covers all of Tennessee, portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Kentucky, and small areas of Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia. TVA is the sixth-largest power supplier and the largest public utility in the country. In July 2021, MDN told you that TVA is spending over $1 billion to replace six coal-fired plants with natgas-fired turbines (see 
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Lately, we’ve been closely monitoring the price of natural gas, looking for indicators as to when the price will quit bumping around near $2/MMBtu and go higher once again. Two days ago, we told you experts are predicting we’ve now hit bottom, and the price of natgas will begin to rise (see 
A small bit of progress to report about the 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), which stretches from Wetzel County, WV, to Pittsylvania County, VA. Yesterday the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) issued its latest (third!) approval for MVP to traverse a piddly 3.5 miles of the federally-owned Jefferson National Forest. We have no doubt that radicalized leftists will, once again, challenge this permit, and that the colluding three Democrat judges of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit will overturn it. That is, unless so-called permitting reform is passed by Congress, removing the 4th Circuit’s jurisdiction over this project.
Yesterday the commodity price of the Henry Hub natural gas benchmark (the NYMEX front-month futures price) popped by 5%, rising 11 cents to close at $2.38/MMBtu. (Unfortunately, the price widget along the right side of the MDN website has not been updated. It still shows Friday’s closing numbers, even though it uses yesterday’s date.) We follow the price of gas regularly because (a) it affects how much in royalties landowners receive, and (b) it affects how profitable it is to drill, a good indicator of whether drilling will pick up or slow down. As we said yesterday, experts are predicting we’ve hit bottom, and the price of natgas will now begin to rise (see 
Three New York City pension funds–the New York City Employees’ Retirement System, the Teachers’ Retirement System, and the Board of Education Retirement System–were sued this week by municipal employees for breaching their fiduciary duty and divesting from fossil energy companies. The plaintiffs allege the divestments have resulted in the loss of billions of dollars that otherwise would have gone to retirees. The pension funds went woke and decided they could no longer support companies that (in their wrong opinion) are creating catastrophic, man-made global warming.
The Dept. of Energy (DOE) grants permission for LNG export facilities to ship LNG to non-free trade agreement countries. It can take years to sign up enough customers (via contracts) and investors to make a “final investment decision” (or FID) to move forward with a project that often approaches $20 billion. LNG builders need to know once the plant is built, it can actually ship to other countries. But the DOE grants its permission to export with a string attached: The plant must get built and begin shipping within seven years–or the permit expires. Until April, LNG builders would routinely ask for an extension to the seven-year period. In April, the DOE changed its policy and declined to extend a permit for Energy Transfer’s Lake Charles LNG project beyond seven years (see 
Inflation is a measure of the rate of rising prices of goods and services in an economy. Inflation can occur when prices rise due to increases in production costs, such as raw materials and wages. A surge in demand for products and services can cause inflation as consumers are willing to pay more for the product. But inflation can also be caused by the government printing and spending too much money. We refer to the current high inflation in our country as Bidenflation–caused by the Biden White House and colluding Democrats in Congress–because they passed massive, reckless spending bills. Much of that spending is being paid for by simply printing new money. When you have more money chasing the same amount of goods and services, prices go up. Inflation.
The news lit up Friday afternoon with the latest rig count by Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). We always caution that weekly rig counts are not a reliable way to gauge drilling activity as the count floats up and down each week. However, on Friday, the bottom kind of dropped out of the natural gas rig count. BKR said the gas-focused rig count dropped by 16 to 141 for the week, which amounts to a 10% drop in a single week. That *does* get your attention. The general consensus seems to be that low, low prices (bumping around near $2/MMBtu) have finally taken their toll, and drillers are pulling back on drilling new wells. How many rigs were lost in the Marcellus and Utica last week?
John Love, who used to manage the United States Natural Gas Fund (the country’s biggest natural gas ETF), said in an interview with CNBC last week he believes the commodity price of natural gas has already hit bottom and will rise from here. Love says drillers are focused on the future–and the future is LNG exports. Love’s sentiments about the price bottoming out were echoed by a second expert, Teucrium Trading CEO Sal Gilbertie.