Research

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    Marcellus/Utica Anti-Drilling Group Back with Impacts “Research”

    The Multi-State Shale Research Collaborative (MSSRC) attempts to pass itself off as a non-partisan, “just the facts ma’am” kind of organization dedicated to measuring the “impacts” of Marcellus and Utica Shale drilling. They are anything but. The organization is extremely partisan and anti-drilling, backed by the likes of the Heinz Endowments and Park Foundation, two organizations that back only anti-drillers when it comes to the issue of shale drilling (just ask Bobby Vagt, former president of the Heinz Endowments, Bobby Vagt Out as Pres of Heinz Endowments – Fracking Connection?).

    Last November the MSSRC issued a faux research “report” that said, “Nah, Marcellus/Utica doesn’t create all that many jobs after all” (see Anti-Drilling Cabal Issues Biased Report on Marcellus/Utica Jobs). The anti-drilling MSSRC is back with a series of four “case studies” on counties in the Marcellus/Utica and how they’ve fared with a number of metrics. As you might expect, the “study” found loads of negative impacts. It’s all crap, but we highlight it for you so you know that it’s crap and so you’re not taken in by their lame attempt at covering up who they really are and their insidious agenda…
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    Sierra Club Pumps Out More Yada Yada in Anti-Fossil Fuel “Report”

    yada yadaThe Sierra Club continues to marginalize itself as an extremist, out-of-touch, agenda-driven huckster of fascist idealism (we know how to run your life better than you do), as proven by their latest diatribe against the miracle of safe, clean hydraulic fracturing and all things fossil fuel. Yesterday the extremists at the Sierra Club vomitted out yet another so-called report called “Dirty Fuels, Clean Futures” (full copy embedded below) in which they espouse the same old same old yada yada yada. Solar is wonderful yada yada. Fracking is evil yada yada. Burning fossil fuels will fry the planet yada yada. Obama’s dictatorial ways are to be praised, Heil Barack! yada yada. Everything is “dirty” if it’s not on the Sierra Club’s approved list.

    And so it goes. Complete and utter refuse. (Please don’t EVER give the Sierra Club a dime of your money.) They even stoop so low as to profile Susquehanna County minor celebrity anti-driller Vera Scroggins in the report (page 23). Apparently Vera is a hero in the wacko world of enviro-extremists. Good–they can have her. We provide you with the so-called “press release” and a full copy of the so-called “report” below, simply because it’s a slow news day and we like to express our utter contempt and disgust with the lies pumped out daily by the odious Sierra Club…
    Read More “Sierra Club Pumps Out More Yada Yada in Anti-Fossil Fuel “Report””

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    EIA: Marcellus #1 Proved Reserves Shale in U.S., PA #2 for Gas

    Yesterday the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), our favorite government agency (the only one worth funding in our opinion) issued its annual U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves for 2012 report (full copy embedded below). It takes a long time to crunch and analyze the numbers, hence these kinds of reports are 2 years delayed. But wow! What an interesting report. It shows that in 2012 the Marcellus Shale became the nation’s largest shale play–at least by proved reserves–surpassing the Barnett Shale in Texas, the former reigning champ of proved reserves. Pennsylvania rocketed from fifth to second largest gas reserve state. The report also shows the Texas Eagle Ford Shale play passed the North Dakota Bakken to become the largest tight oil shale play in the U.S. That’s the big big news. But there’s plenty of smaller big news too.

    First up, what the heck is proved reserves? The EIA defines it this way: “Proved reserves are volumes of oil and natural gas that geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions.” You might think proved reserves are our best guess as to how much total oil or gas is down there, based on sound scientific data. But you would be wrong. It’s what’s down there that we’re willing to go get based on today’s economics. Important distinction. What that means is the commodity price for oil and gas has a lot to do with proved reserves numbers. The oil and gas can be locked away down there (indeed it is down there), but if we’re not willing to get it out of the ground because we can’t make a profit–it might as well not exist…
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    Sham Study by UK Authors Says PA Shale Wells Fail at High Rate

    A new “study” is starting to make the rounds in the incestuous echo chamber of anti-drillers and their sycophantic supporters in the mainstream media. The study, titled “Oil and gas wells and their integrity: Implications for shale and unconventional resource exploitation” is published in the “peer-reviewed” Marine and Petroleum Geology journal (full copy of the study embedded below). It’s written mainly by UK authors, with a couple of US authors thrown in to sweeten the pot. None of them are from universities in Pennsylvania. Here’s a typical headline generated by this new study: “Pennsylvania Fracking Wells Are Dangerous, Study Finds.” Which is a lie. But the media hopes you won’t read beyond the headlines. We actually do.

    Here’s the first thing to know about this “study”: There is no (that is zero) new data in the study. It’s a review of other people’s data and research in “the published literature and online.” That is, the authors didn’t do any actual science or field work–they just read what anti-drilling wackos have published on websites and in print and rounded it all up and called it science. The second thing to know, regarding their evaluation of the data from Pennsylvania, is this: “the search criteria used to categorise leakage incidents in Pennsylvania followed the approach described by [Anthony] Ingraffea.” That is, the authors intentionally chose to ignore the better data of what constitutes well leakage in Pennsylvania tabulated and tracked by the agency charged with monitoring it (the PA DEP) and instead chose to use Cornell anti-drilling professor Tony Ingraffea’s wild interpretations of the DEP data. That right there tells you all you need to know about this sham of a “study”…
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    PA DEP Releases 2012 Air Emissions from Drilling/Pipelines Report

    Yesterday the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) released their annual natural gas drilling emissions inventory data report. The data tabulates air pollution from drilling and pipelines for all of 2012 and came from 56 Marcellus Shale drillers covering 8,800 natural gas wells and from 70 operators of 400 compressor stations, which received gas from Marcellus Shale and traditional oil and gas well sites. Important to note: New to the 2012 report were 250 additional compressor stations that process gas from traditional (not shale) well sites. These compressor stations were not required to report in 2011.

    What does the latest report show? As you might expect, when you drill more wells and move more gas through pipelines, there’s more air pollution. However, the DEP is quick to point out that cumulatively, for all Pennsylvanians, air pollution is down–rather dramatically. Why? Because with more natural gas use in electric generating plants (replacing coal) and as a substitute for diesel fuel, overall pollution drops. Still, as MDN has pointed out on previous occasions, we must keep a close eye on air pollution in heavily drilled areas to ensure residents in those areas are not exposed to unsafe levels of pollutants. Below we have the DEP’s announcement from yesterday, a copy of the 2012 numbers, links back to the 2011 numbers (so you can compare them), and a few more thoughts on drilling and air pollution…
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    Maryland Anti-Drillers Say Fracking Health Report Will Fall Short

    If you’re an objective scientist, you formulate a hypothesis (a “best guess”) and test it. And test it again. And again. The results of science are testable, repeatable and demonstrable. If the results don’t match your original hypothesis, you throw that hypothesis out and get a new one to see if the data fits. That’s how real science works. If you’re a political huckster, you engage in scientific insanity–testing and re-testing and when the outcome doesn’t match your twisted and preconceived notions of what it should be–you tell those doing the testing they’re doing it wrong and to do it again. In other words, you’ve already determined what you want the outcome to be–and anything short of that is not acceptable. It’s not real science but smearing scientific lipstick on an ideological pig. That’s how anti-drillers in Maryland are treating a so-called health study on potential Marcellus Shale drilling in the state.

    A group of ideological, anti-drilling hucksters, including the Alliance of Nurses for Healthy Environments (ANHE), Maryland Environment Health Network (MdEHN), Concerned Health Professionals of New York (CHPNY), the odious Food and Water Watch and Ann Bristow (a member of Gov. O’Malley’s fracking commission), have declared a study that’s not yet completed or released will fall short of their desired, predetermined outcome. That is, they’ve already prejudged the not-yet-finished report and found it lacking. Their erudite (and insane) solution? Delay it even more. Extend it. Test again. And again. And again. And keep testing and researching (and lying) until the report says what they want it to say–that which isn’t true: fracking has negative health impacts on “the public”…
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    Moody’s Says Marcellus is Different–and Better–than Other Plays

    Moody’s Investors Service has just published a new 11-page (5,231 word) report titled, “US Exploration and Production: Marcellus’ Natural Gas Bounty Rewards Early Adopters.” Pricetag? $550 smackeroos. A bit too pricey for us for an 11-page report! However, Moody’s has kindly shared some of the high-level conclusions they reach in the report, including this one: “Exploration and production (E&P) companies that extract natural gas from the Marcellus Shale play will benefit more than natural gas producers elsewhere in North America, and their advantage isn’t likely to change anytime soon.” We agree.

    The report says early movers like E&P companies including Chesapeake, Southwestern and Anadarko, and midstream companies like MarkWest and Sunoco Logistics, have a distinct and ongoing advantage. Here’s a bit more from their summary of the report in which they point out the Marcellus is not like any other shale play:
    Read More “Moody’s Says Marcellus is Different–and Better–than Other Plays”

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    Yet Another “Shale Gas Will Last Only 10 Years” Claptrap Article

    We spotted a long (and we do mean long) article on the Seeking Alpha investors’ website about the Marcellus Shale. Titled “Marcellus Shale: Through A Glass, Darkly,” the article has lots of charts and graphs, and a lot of math (our eyes glazeth over). We read or scanned through most of it. The author, Moshe Ben-Reuven (a former aerospace engineer, which explains the charts and math and formulas), makes some good points. But when you dig deeper, you understand his overall theme and why he spins the story he does. Ben-Reuven’s theme is that the Marcellus won’t last all that long–10 years IF we don’t export any of it. We can make it last longer if we dump water-based fracking and use alternative (i.e. expensive) fracking methods. And oh yes, shale gas is just a little stepping stone on our way to the alternative energy nirvana future that awaits us all. Shale gas is good for weaning us off nasty coal, but once that’s done, we’ll need to wean ourselves from the less-nasty (but still nasty) shale gas fossil fuel too. That’s the rough conclusion he comes to (see it in his own words below).

    It won’t surprise you to learn that Ben-Reuven heads up a “green energy” company that develops biomass fuels–a technology left behind in the proverbial dust of the shale gas revolution/miracle now taking place. Which explains all of the hocus pocus numbers and story spun by Ben-Reuven. And which brings to mind the old saying: If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull…
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    PA Partisan Study Finds PA Needs to Soak Drillers with New Taxes

    The partisan Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) last week released a so-called study on oil and gas taxes and concluded (surprise!) PA doesn’t pay enough in taxes (see PA Shale Industry Demonized for “Lack” of Severance Tax). The group compared apples with oranges and did it’s “best” to try and make a “fair” comparison and of course concluded PA drillers need to be drilled themselves–you know, to spread the wealth around in good socialist fashion. A full copy of the “study” is embedded below.

    It seems the IFO and PA Democrats are a bit thin-skinned when sources like MDN poke holes in their precious studies and dare to call them what they are: partisan hucksterism. And so news outlets like the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette rush in to try and prop them up with “look at how fair and balanced this study really is” kinds of articles, like this one:
    Read More “PA Partisan Study Finds PA Needs to Soak Drillers with New Taxes”

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    How Thick is the Marcellus? USGS Report Sheds (a Little) Light

    Normally the U.S. Geological Service (USGS) will push out a press release when they release a new study. However, for a recently published report titled “Characterization of the Marcellus Shale based on computer-assisted correlation of wireline logs in Virginia and West Virginia” (full copy embedded below) there was no such press announcement. We noticed the report when it popped up in one of our news gather filters. As you might expect, this new report is heaving on wonky science. It’s weakness (depending on your viewpoint) is that the data they’ve analyzed comes from just 9 wells in Virginia and West Virginia. The purpose of the report is to test some theories on why the Marcellus is thicker in some places than in others.

    This report will be of interest to geologists and E&P companies. For the average person? Probably not so much. However, there is a map on page 8 we like and think you will too. That map shows the Marcellus region with the authors’ best guess as to the thickness of the Marcellus layer in various areas throughout the northeast. Remember, usually the thicker the better (the more natgas there is likely to be locked away in the shale)…
    Read More “How Thick is the Marcellus? USGS Report Sheds (a Little) Light”

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    Study Says Each PA Well Creates $5-$10K+ in Road Damages

    A new study recently published in the peer reviewed Journal of Infrastructure Systems from a half dozen students and professors, some of them working for RAND Corporation, attempts to answer the question, How much road damage due to truck traffic happens in Pennsylvania–and how much does it cost? The study, titled “Estimating The Consumptive Use Costs of Shale Natural Gas Extraction on Pennsylvania Roadways” (full copy embedded below), was submitted for consideration a year ago–in March 2013. It was accepted by the Journal in November and finally published in their February 2014 issue.

    The folks doing the research are smart–members of the American Society of Civil Engineers–we don’t dispute their credentials. What did they find? Using estimates of how many truck trips it takes to drill a well from data collected by the New York Dept. of Environmental Conservation (yes, NY data where there is no shale drilling), the authors estimate that for more frequently traveled state and local roads in PA the damage amounts to an average of $5,000 to $10,000 per well drilled. If you include less-traveled rural roads, that number jumps to $13,000 to $23,000 per well average…
    Read More “Study Says Each PA Well Creates $5-$10K+ in Road Damages”

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    Report: Coming Economic Miracle in WV from Ethane Cracker Plant

    In February MDN told you about a newly released research report from Tom Witt, economist and former director of West Virginia University’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research and professor emeritus at WVU. Witt, now a private consultant, took a close look at realistic numbers for how many jobs and how much money the proposed Odebrecht ethane cracker and associated petrochemical plants will generate for WV and the region (see Economist Releases Report on WV Cracker Plant’s Economic Impact). The numbers are truly astonishing.

    In February we could not get our hands a copy of the study, which is titled “Building Value from Shale Gas: The Promise of Expanding Petrochemicals in West Virginia.” We now have a full copy and have embedded it below. We also have an editorial written by Witt and published a few days ago describing the study and his take on the coming economic miracle in WV from Odebrecht’s ethane cracker plant…
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    America’s Cities Big Winners from Cheap Marcellus Shale Gas

    Yesterday the U.S. Conference of Mayors released a new study from IHS that shows the positive impact inexpensive and abundant natural gas is having on the manufacturing sector. Titled “Impact of the Manufacturing Renaissance from Energy Intensive Sectors” (full copy embedded below), the report provides analysis and detailed data on the impact for jobs and the economy in 363 metro areas across the United States. Nine key sectors are analyzed, including: Basic organic chemicals; iron and steel mills; fabricated metals; machinery; nonmetallic minerals; resin, rubber and fiber; plastics and rubber; agricultural chemicals; and petroleum and coal products. According to the report, in 2011 and 2012, demand from the Marcellus and other growing shale plays for new pipelines and mining equipment ignited the nation’s steel, iron, fabricated metals, and machinery manufacturing industries. In U.S. metro areas, these sectors saw real sales and employment jump by 17% and 9.7%, respectively, during those years.

    Through 2020, the report projects energy intensive manufacturing employment will expand by more than 1% annually nationwide, with 72% of those jobs coming in metro areas. That is, America’s cities are the beneficiaries, both economically and in job growth, because of cheap natgas. Below are the key findings of the report, followed by a full copy…
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    New Research: US/Canada Need $30B/Year on Midstream Investment

    billions and billionsIn September 2013 MDN published Vol. 2 of the 2013 Marcellus and Utica Shale Databook series. In that volume we included a comprehensive list of 111 announced infrastructure (pipeline related) projects for the northeast. When we tallied it all up, the numbers were that projects in our neck of the woods will result in about $40 billion being spent over the next five years or so (see MDN’s 2013 Databook Vol 2 Finds Staggering $40B in NE Midstream Projects). The INGAA Foundation (Interstate Natural Gas Association of America) and ANGA (America’s Natural Gas Alliance) yesterday released a study they commissioned that tops our estimates–by a lot. The study is titled, “North America Midstream Infrastructure through 2035: Capitalizing on Our Energy Abundance” (full copy embedded below). Researched and prepared by ICF International, the new study shows that the U.S. and Canada together will need to spend $30 billion per year from now until 2035 on pipelines and related infrastructure just to keep pace with shale development.

    ICF’s numbers add up to $641 billion in 2012 dollars over 22 years. But get this: $70 billion of that $641 will be spent in the Marcellus, according to the study. Nationwide the new spending will generate more than 432,000 jobs, add approximately $885 billion to U.S. and Canadian economies, and bring in over $300 billion in federal, state/provincial and local taxes. Truly staggering numbers. Immediately below we have the quick hit, bulleted conclusions of the report, for the time-pressed, so you can scan it. Below that the press release announcing the new study–and finally, a full copy of the study with some great charts and graphs (be sure to check out their Henry Hub price forecast through 2035 on page 24)…
    Read More “New Research: US/Canada Need $30B/Year on Midstream Investment”

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    April EIA DPR: Marcellus Continues Reign as King of the Shale

    A periodic check-in of our favorite Energy Information Administration report, the Drilling Productivity Report (DPR), shows the Marcellus Shale continues to be the United States’ (and world’s!) leading shale play when it comes to production of natural gas. The April DPR, released two days ago, shows the Marcellus is forecast to increase production by an average 288 million cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d) in April over March. The increase, as always, comes from a mix of newly drilled wells coming online and previously drilled wells.

    Below we have analysis of the latest numbers, along with the full DPR for April, yesterday’s EIA Today in Energy update (which talks about the increasing efficiency of new wells in the Marcellus), and screen shots of two charts on the DPR home page, charts they don’t include in the PDF (for whatever reason, but should be)…
    Read More “April EIA DPR: Marcellus Continues Reign as King of the Shale”

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    OOGA’s DeBrosse Report: Utica Drilling Ramps Up in 2013

    reportEach year the 3,200-member Ohio Oil and Gas Association (OOGA) issue the DeBrosse Memorial Report. The report is a high level look at where (and how much) drilling there has been in the state–and what they’re finding (methane, oil, NGLs). OOGA’s Peter MacKenzie presented the findings of the latest DeBrosse Report at last week’s OOGA Annual Winter Meeting in Columbus. According to MacKenzie, the data in this year’s report, “should get people’s attention,” saying it sure got his.

    OOGA supplied us with a copy of the report to share with MDN subscribers (full copy embedded below). It’s chock full of great maps and charts and statistics about oil and gas drilling in Ohio. The numbers (and maps) show the dramatic impact Utica Shale drilling has had. First up are some of the highlights as shared by the Akron Beacon Journal, followed by the full report…
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