PA NatGas Production 2Q16 – DUCs Shrink, Production Grows
In the past we’ve been pretty critical of the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). It claims to provide revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with “impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions.” It’s been our observation the IFO is populated with partisan Democrats. However, we have to acknowledge lately their analysis work, at least with regard to the Marcellus industry, has been pretty accurate (see PA Independent Fiscal Office Predicts Impact Fee Revenue for 2016). The IFO has just released another report–this one analyzing the first six months of monthly Marcellus gas production data issued by the state Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP), comparing it with previous months and years (full copy of the IFO report embedded below). What’s obvious from the numbers is this: PA’s shale drillers are in the process of completing previously drilled but uncompleted wells (called DUCs), drawing down the number of DUCs available. The conclusion is inescapable: More drilling of new wells is on the way in PA in 2016…
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A great article in Investor’s Business Daily explores the link between shale gas and the “explosive expansion” of the U.S. petrochemical industry. Part of the petchem supply chain is finding a cheap source of ethylene, the raw material used in making all sorts of plastics products. Manufacturers get ethylene from ethane cracker plants. The article discusses that link, and the reasons why Shell chose to locate their new multi-billion dollar ethane cracker plant near Pittsburgh. As you can guess, economics play a major role in such a decision. Here are the specific economics that convinced Shell that PA is a good bet…






In June MDN reported on yet another new unlegislated law (called a “rule”) issued by the rogue federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that bans the disposal of wastewater from oil and gas drilling via public wastewater/sewage treatment plants (see
Recently a group of 12 Pennsylvania state representatives held a hearing in Armstrong County, PA on the topic of separate regulations for PA’s small conventional vs large shale drillers. You may recall that new drilling rules from the state Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) have been approved for shale drillers, called Article 78a, but not for conventional drillers, called Article 78 (see
Last week MDN reported that Dennis Davin, Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) had gone on a roadshow to three counties that will be most affected by Shell’s ethane cracker plant planned for Beaver County (see 
A banker, a real estate developer and a natural gas drilling company rep walk into a bar… No wait! This isn’t a joke! A banker, a real estate developer and a natgas drilling rep were panelists at seminar held yesterday, organized by the Pittsburgh Business Times. Even though there has been a major slowdown in Marcellus/Utica drilling, all three panelists were upbeat and optimistic–in no small part because of the coming Shell ethane cracker in nearby Beaver County. One comment made about the Shell cracker: “We’re not just building a facility; we’re building an industry.” That’s just how major the Shell project will be in the greater Pittsburgh area. Another comment: “The Marcellus Shale is not in the tank…It has slowed down, which is typical of industries that are sensitive to price cycles, [but] it’s consistent, affordable and is stable.” More interesting tidbits from the PBT soiree…
Gene Barr is the president and CEO of the Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry. The PA Chamber is a big supporter of the Marcellus industry. Writing a column that appears in a recent edition of the York Dispatch, Barr gives full-throated support to three pipelines “critical” to PA’s future: Williams’ Atlantic Sunrise; Sunoco Logistics’ Mariner East 2; and UGI Energy Services’ PennEast. We really liked Barr’s column (read it below). However, we would add a fourth pipeline to his list of critically important pipelines for PA drillers: the Williams Constitution Pipeline. While the three projects Barr names will be mostly built in PA, the Constitution Pipeline will be mostly built in New York State. We suppose that’s all we have to say for you to know why that project is in trouble. At any rate, here’s the reasons Barr offers for supporting the three pipelines he mentions in his column, reasons that equally apply to the much-needed Constitution Pipeline too…