“Lower for Longer” Not Only for NatGas, but Oil & Petchem Too
If you’ve read MDN for any length of time you know we’ve preached the gospel of “lower for longer”–that natural gas prices will remain low, quite low, for a long period of time. How low? Likely in the $2/Mcf range (or just under, or just over). Gone are the days of $3 and $4 gas–at least for a period of years. Although that may have now changed with the double shock of too much oil and the coronavirus destroying demand, which affects natural gas prices. How? Less oil drilling in American shale means less associated gas produced by oil drilling. Less supply equals higher prices. But let’s not go down that rabbit trail right now. We spotted a couple of articles by analysts who predict the current oil price crash will have a profound and long-term effect not only on the oil industry but also on the petrochemical industry–the downstream recipient and user of oil (and gas).
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The gloves are off. Today we’re calling out the American Petroleum Institute and the Big Oil supermajors that control the API for their selfishness and shortsightedness. Apparently the supermajors have long wanted American shale and the plethora of smaller independents to just go away–so they (Big Oil) could once again control the world market for oil. The result of that philosophy, whether intentional or not, will be to allow foreign countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia to buy up OUR American shale companies, for themselves (see U.S. in Danger of Losing Our Shale Oil Industry to Other Countries). The API hides under the covering of “don’t interfere in free markets” in advising President Trump to not do anything to help American shale. That’s bunkum.
America is in danger of losing ownership of our shale oil companies to bad actors including Saudi Arabia, Russia and other foreign countries. Those countries are actively, aggressively, purposely waging a price war against us, trying to drive American shale companies into bankruptcy. Why? So they can turn around and buy up our companies and once again control the world market for oil. It is a *hostile* action. President Trump, please don’t let it happen!
Enverus, a leading oil and gas SaaS and data analytics company, has just released its latest FundamentalEdge report called, “
MARCELLUS/UTICA REGION: Even facing a pandemic, NY State remains in the grip of green movement; Nearly 650 MW of New York City peaking capacity will retire to comply with tighter regulations; Congresswoman Miller urges support for oil and gas industry during COVID-19 response; OTHER U.S. REGIONS: Court revives Michigan anti-fracking effort; NATIONAL: U.S. natural gas output expected to fall by most ever next year; U.S. oil rig count seen plunging 65% in record time, eclipsing recent downturns; Shale drillers warming to a once-unthinkable idea: a cap on oil; U.S. to again become net importer of crude oil amid COVID-19 pandemic, EIA says; Cost structure threatens the survival of many U.S. crude oil producers; Led by Harold Hamm, America’s oil frackers are slashing output; INTERNATIONAL: Japan, Singapore lockdowns to stifle Asian gas, power demand further; U.S. energy secretary hopeful Saudi, Russia to end oil row this week.
Vallourec, headquartered in Boulogne-Billancourt, France, manufactures steel pipes used in the oil and gas industry. The company employs some 19,000 people in 20 countries, including the U.S. In fact, Vallourec employs more than 750 at three Youngstown, Ohio units: Vallourec Star, VAM USA and Vallourec USA Corp. Yesterday Vallourec corporate headquarters announced it will reduce (layoff/eliminate) some 900 positions “across all plants as well as support functions.” That number, 900, represents over one-third of Vallourec’s total workforce and contractor positions in North America. The announcement implies all 900 of the positions being eliminated will happen in North America.
Is your head spinning yet with all the news about the oil price crash and what the U.S. may or may not do to “fix” it? Ours is! Last week President Trump tweeted to the world he had a conversation with his “friend” the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and the Prince told Trump the Saudis and Russians are close to announcing a major cut in world oil production (see 
While the drilling rig count is an important signal for the future of oil (and gas) production, drilling a hole in the ground is only half of the process (and only one-third of the cost). After the hole is drilled comes “completions”–fracking and other work to get the hole producing and connected to a pipeline. Fracking is done by a collection of equipment–things like high-pressure pumps. It’s known in the industry as a “frac spread” (or a “frac fleet”). Counting the number of frac spreads is a better indicator of how much oil will come online than counting active rigs. What does the frac spread count show right now? How quickly will U.S. oil production decrease?
We’re not anywhere close to being “through” the worst of the coronavirus siege. Yet the environmental left in this country is opportunistically using the virus to push for the end of oil AND natural gas use. It’s mindblowing how stupid they really are. They are blinded by their own wacko non-God environmental religion. As we begin to exit from the virus crisis, attention will once again return to the race for the U.S. presidency and to calls from a majority of the Democrat Party to slap a nationwide ban on fracking. What would that *really* mean, in dollars and cents and jobs? We have some numbers for you to mull over.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette is reporting Marcellus/Utica condensate, produced in places like southwestern Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio, briefly touched and went below $0/barrel last week, before recovering slightly. The article says the price M-U drillers are getting for condensate is down 91% from January of this year. What’s lacking in the Post-Gazette story is context for how important (or not) condensate is as a revenue stream for M-U drillers.
Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf, like governors in neighboring states hit hard by the COVID-19 coronavirus, has elected to shut down all non-essential (called non-life-sustaining) businesses in the state until further notice to prevent the spread of the virus. The state issued a comprehensive list of which kinds of businesses could, and could not, continue working during the shutdown. Some 35,000 businesses on the non-life-sustaining list have requested a waiver from the state Dept. of Community and Economic Development (DCED). The DCED has so far granted 5,693 waivers, denied 8,952 requests, and ruled another 8,365 do not require a waiver because they fit the life-sustaining definition outlined in the shutdown order.
Leftist anti-fossil fuelers (nutters all) have worked themselves into a frenzy with a new campaign to bombard the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) with requests and demands to begin all over again in its review of the PennEast Pipeline project. Last week MDN told you about the Delaware River Basin Commission’s haughty demand that it be given the right to review and pass judgment on the project before construction begins (see 
Although it seems counterintuitive to say this, maybe NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo and his legion of radicalized Democrats have done New York landowners a favor with a permanent ban on fracking, passed as part of the most recent state budget (see