Which Way Do You Flow? The Price of Gas, the Marcellus & Canada
What’s the long-term prognosis for the commodity price of natural gas? Depends on who you ask–but overall, “the market” seems to be saying even amidst one of the coldest winters on record in decades, the longer term trend will be low to moderate prices for methane/natural gas. Industry publication Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin issued one of their analysis stories on the press release wire (a clever marketing move that we appreciate). The story delves into the issue of gas prices and its relationship to Canadian exports/imports. One of the major components of the story (full copy below) is an analysis by investment firm Raymond James.
Guess which shale play Raymond James spends a good deal of time examining? The Marcellus, of course–which is why we found this particular story about gas prices intriguing. Another reason the story is intriguing is because it reveals that Canada, which has long been the #1 source of natural gas imported into the U.S., has seen their gas flows into the U.S. drop by 50% in the past six years. And now, Marcellus gas is starting to flow the direction, into Canada…
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Last Friday, for the first time ever, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the agency charged with approving transmission pipelines for oil and gas across the country, invoked its its emergency authority under the Interstate Commerce Act and directed Enterprise Products Partners to prioritize propane shipments on one of its pipelines that runs from the Gulf Coast to the northeast and Midwest (see map below). The Enterprise TEPPCO (TE Products Pipelines Company) pipeline handles various refined products, including gasoline and natural gas liquids like propane. The order directs Enterprise to prioritize propane shipments beginning yesterday or today and continuing for a week. Last Friday Enterprise told shippers it would inject 150,000 barrels of propane into its pipeline on yesterday (Monday) and 350,000 barrels on Thursday. Enterprise later said they are willing to continue prioritized propane shipments until Feb. 21.
We normally skip pronouncements from extremist anti-drilling groups like PennFuture. They, along with other PA groups like PennEnvironment, the League of [Liberal Democrat] Women Voters, Sierra Club, Shale Justice…you get the idea–hold unreasonable views on shale drilling and development. They simply want it all stopped–which ain’t gonna happen. There is no reasoning with them–no middle ground or acceptable way to drill for shale for such groups. So they become ever-more shrill in their false accusations and allegations about what may/maybe/might/could/possibly/theoretically happen if a particular area were to see shale drilling. Say, oh, like the Loyalsock State Forest in PA.
What’s the deal with propane prices? MDN previously pointed out lack of storage in the northeast because of NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s dallying on a decision to allow a new storage facility near Seneca Lake has contributed to rising propane prices (see