Anti-Fossil Fuel IEA Predicts (Surprise!) O&G in Decline by 2035

These days we pretty much ignore the International Energy Agency (IEA) because its Executive Director, Dr. Fatih Birol, is someone who spouts anti-fossil fuel rhetoric every chance he gets. IEA’s pronouncements are to be ignored, like this one from the recently published World Energy Outlook 2022: “global demand for natural gas, coal and oil is expected to peak or plateau by the mid-2030s.” Mainstream media, and even oil and gas media, pick up the IEA’s nonsense and regurgitate it as if it’s actually noteworthy. So today, we bring you the IEA’s recently published annual WEO-2022 and its anti-fossil fuel pronouncements as a sterling example of what NOT to pay attention to.
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In June, MDN told you about this year’s distribution of last year’s (2021) Pennsylvania impact fee revenue (PA’s version of a severance tax) to local municipalities and to the black hole of Harrisburg politicians (see
Politics is fascinating for us (in case you couldn’t tell when reading MDN). This site often features articles about the intersection of politics and energy. Living in New York State, editor Jim Willis has long advocated for shale drilling. Fracking in NY was the reason Jim started this blog/news site! MDN began in 2009 when shale drilling in NY seemed about to take off. And then, a series of unfortunate events led to the profoundly corrupt Andrew Cuomo becoming governor, seizing power in the Empire State. Cuomo not only temporarily blocked fracking in NY, he ultimately signed a bill into law permanently banning it (see 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration says natural gas consumption in all sectors in the United States was effectively flat between 2020 and 2021, down by only 0.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). The pandemic was to blame. Natgas usage hit a record high in 2019, just prior to the pandemic, but has decreased since that time. In 2021, natural gas used in the electric power sector (which is the largest U.S. natural gas-consuming sector) decreased by 3%. However, and this is the good news, the EIA predicts natural gas-fired generation will increase by 5% this year.
You know what kneecapping is, right? It happens when a gangster or thug uses a handgun (or baseball bat) to shoot someone in the knee, inflicting permanent, lifetime damage. It’s a very cruel form of punishment inflicted on one’s enemy. It’s also an apt metaphor for what is coming under the so-called Biden Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the renamed version of what had been called Build Back Better, made possible by a single vote from U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (see
Late last week, both the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) held a conference call with Freeport LNG to discuss progress being made in restoring the 2.1 Bcf/d LNG export facility back to full working order. Freeport experienced an explosion and fire in early June (see
The Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) has, for a second time, served a notice of violation (NOV) of the PA Clean Streams Law to Pennsylvania General Energy (PGE) for causing sediment pollution in the Loyalsock Creek north of Montoursville (Lycoming County). PGE is constructing a natural gas pipeline, a freshwater pipeline, and it withdraws fresh water for Marcellus Shale-related activities at the site.
We’ve been warning about it for years because various government and private companies have been warning about it–that Boston and New England were just one extended cold snap away from rolling blackouts. More than half of all electricity generated and provided to New England comes from natural gas-fired power plants. During cold periods when there is high demand for home heating, power plants are threatened with shortages. Somehow New England has dodged a bullet and has not had to resort to rolling blackouts. Until (likely) this year. Eversource, the region’s largest utility company, sent a letter last Thursday to President Biden urging him to assemble a panel and figure out how to ensure natgas flows to New England (via LNG) this winter–because if it doesn’t, this IS the year rolling blackouts become reality.
We began to see the latest fake news attacks against natural gas nearly two weeks ago. The extreme, leftwing activist group Physicians, Scientists and Engineers for Healthy Energy (PSEHE) produced a junk science report that claims the natural gas in your cooking stove is leaking gas that contains chemicals that cause cancer. Mainstream outlets, like NBC News, dutifully (without verifying it) reported this nonsense like it was legitimate science news. It is not. It’s quackery. But then NBC (and others like it) have VERY low standards. NBC is more into propaganda and advocacy than it is reporting objective, unbiased news. No worries. We will debunk it for you below.
For some time, we’ve been sounding the alarm about a coming change at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that will force publicly traded companies to disclose mythical greenhouse gas emissions data (see
As we mentioned yesterday, House Bill (HB) 1059, legislation to provide $142 million annually in state tax credits for several purposes, including clean hydrogen hubs, use of natural gas, semiconductor manufacturing, and milk processors, was approved by a Senate committee and is on a fast track to becoming signed into law (see
In 2021, the use of coal in the U.S. to fire power plants actually rose by 16% after it had declined steadily, year after year, from 2014 to 2020. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects coal used to fire power plants in the U.S. to decline again this year, even though the price of natural gas has doubled and tripled. Coal and natgas are typically interchangeable, and power generators use whichever costs less. But not, it seems, anymore.
Norwegian company DNV operates as a quality assurance and risk management company. It offers supply chain, data management, technical assurance, software, and advisory services. DNV recently published its annual Energy Transition Outlook 2022. DNV’s predictions are somewhat shocking. The company is a global warming Kool-Aid drinker, believing we’ll all toast if we don’t “transition” away from burning fossil energy by 2050. Yet DNV’s report shows it thinks by 2050, the U.S. and Canada will still be 66% powered by fossil energy, primarily natural gas.
U.S. Senator Joe Manchin, Democrat from West Virginia, ended his political future when he sold out the country by voting in favor of the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which is actually a mini-Green New Deal bill (see