PJM’s Tight-Fitting BRA: Auction Fails to Get Enough Power for 27/28
PJM Interconnection today announced the results of its 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction (BRA), which secured 134,479 MW of unforced capacity generation (UCAP) and demand response (DR) to meet projected electricity needs for more than 67 million people across 13 states and the District of Columbia, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia. The auctioned price came in at the FERC-approved cap of $333.44/MW-day (UCAP) for the entire PJM footprint, an increase of +1.3% from the 2026/2027 BRA. Even so, the BRA fits way too tightly, falling short of PJM’s reliability requirement by 6,623 MW, meaning the committed supply is less than what would be required to meet the one-event-in-10-year reliability standard of a 20% reserve margin. If that event happens in 2027/28, we’re in trouble. The lights will go out. Who’s to blame? We credit Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Read More “PJM’s Tight-Fitting BRA: Auction Fails to Get Enough Power for 27/28”
The Marcellus/Utica rig count gained a rig last week in the Ohio Utica. The combined count hit 39 total rigs, the most it has operated in more than a year. That’s great news! It means drilling is picking up in the M-U. Pennsylvania has held at 18 active rigs for four consecutive weeks. Ohio picked up one and now operates 14 rigs. Before last week, Ohio had held the same number of rigs at 13 since September 26. West Virginia maintained its 7 rigs, which it has operated since May 30. There were 24 rigs targeting the Marcellus and 15 targeting the Utica, for a combined 39 rigs in the M-U. 
Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage (EGTS), a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Energy Company (Warren Buffett’s company), filed a new project with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in July (see 
After a pathetic showing two weeks ago (just 8 permits), last week was a barnstormer—the most permits we’ve seen issued in a single week since we’ve been chronicling permits here on MDN. But, there’s a catch. Last week’s report for the combined three states shows 60 (!) permits issued, with 22 going to Pennsylvania, 24 to Ohio, and 14 to West Virginia. However, Ohio’s numbers are inflated because the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) reported numbers last week that stretch back three weeks in time. You may recall Ohio didn’t issue permits for two weeks in a row. They actually issued permits but didn’t report them. So, this report includes 6 permits for the two missing weeks. Still, removing six from the total means 54 permits were issued last week, which remains a record high. Could the spike in the spot price for natural gas in the M-U be the reason? 
The highly functional and responsible Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC), unlike its highly dysfunctional and irresponsible counterpart, the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC), continues to support the shale energy industry by approving water withdrawals and consumptive use for responsible and safe shale drilling. The SRBC also tells shale drillers when to stop withdrawing if low water flow (i.e., drought) conditions exist. Or when a body of water is frozen or blocked by ice. That’s what the SRBC did yesterday. The agency, via its Hydrologic Conditions Monitor, warned shale drillers that, at 58 listed locations (all in Pennsylvania), they must stop water withdrawals until streamflow reaches a specific “trigger flow” target (different for each location) or until the ice thaws. 
Sometimes politics is a game of “chicken” whereby you must keep fighting and wait out the other side when you *know* you are in the right. Such was the case with Pennsylvania Democrats’ insistence that the state join the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) carbon tax scheme. RGGI aims to force coal- and gas-fired power plants to shut down by making them super expensive to operate. Tax them out of existence on the theory that unreliable renewables like wind and solar would replace them. But Republicans in the PA Senate kept fighting—for seven long years—and finally won (see 
The Pennsylvania Environmental Quality Board (EQB) held a meeting yesterday to consider whether or not to accept a petition by radical green groups, including the Clean Air Council and Environmental Integrity Project, to “study” the issue of increasing setbacks for shale drilling so far that it would ban ALL new Marcellus/Utica drilling in the Keystone State (no exaggeration). The EQB tabled a decision on whether to accept the petition back in April (see 
Here we go again. Pennsylvania Democrat State Reps. Chris Pielli, (Chester), and Tarik Khan, (Philadelphia), have introduced a bill that would establish a severance tax on natural gas production. Specifically, the legislation introduces a per-volume severance tax on natural gas operations. The bill would place the new severance tax on top of the existing impact fee (i.e., tax), creating a double tax on the Marcellus industry. Adding a severance tax to the existing impact fee would instantly make PA’s tax on natural gas extraction the highest in the nation. The purpose is not revenue generation but the death of the Marcellus production in the Keystone State. Do the Dems never tire of attacking the Marcellus industry? 
Pennsylvania has a big problem. The state is retiring older coal- and gas-fired power plants faster than it can add new plants. Plus, the state needs to *grow* its electric generation capacity to meet new demand from AI data centers. PA State Senator Gene Yaw has a solution: modify the existing 1971 Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE) tax credit program by adding a provision granting a tax credit for any $400+ million investment in “baseload power generation” (i.e., gas-fired power generation). Yaw wants to make it a no-brainer for power plant builders to make the Keystone State their destination for new projects. 
Pennsylvania assesses an impact fee (PA’s version of a severance tax) on shale drillers, raising revenues that are paid to local municipalities (60% collected) and the black hole of Harrisburg politicians (40%). Yesterday, the PA Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) issued an estimate of how much the impact fee will raise this year, with the funds distributed in April of next year. The IFO says it expects, based on the price of natural gas and the number of new and existing wells, that PA will generate $239.9 million from the impact fee in 2025, a huge $75.3 million (46%) increase from 2024. The average fee per well generated will be $19,056 in 2025, up from $13,560 (41%) in 2024. 
The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) published proposed revisions to its Chapter 102 Erosion and Sediment Control permit. The DEP is now accepting comments on the changes until January 20. The primary goal of the revision is “regulatory alignment.” Since the original policy was written in 2012, Pennsylvania passed the Chapter 78a (Unconventional) regulations (in 2016) and updated the ESCGP-4 permit (in 2024). The new draft updates the policy to match these legally binding rules rather than creating entirely new standards. The most significant change coming is an increase in setbacks to”support facilities” from 900 feet to 1,320 feet. 
The highly functional and responsible Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC), unlike its highly dysfunctional and irresponsible counterpart, the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC), continues to support the shale energy industry by approving water withdrawals and consumptive use requests for responsible and safe shale drilling. The SRBC published a notice in the December 6 Pennsylvania Bulletin that the Executive Director of the SRBC approved and/or renewed 76 general water use permits from September 1 through October 31 for individual shale gas well drilling pads in Blair, Bradford, Cameron, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Elk, Huntingdon, Lycoming, McKean, Sullivan, Susquehanna and Tioga counties in Pennsylvania and one permit to withdraw water in Steuben County, New York. 
In January, Constellation Energy (a huge power-generating company) announced a deal to buy out and merge with Calpine (another huge power-generating company). Calpine owns 79 energy facilities across the country, generating some 27 gigawatts (GW) of electricity, with a significant number located in the eastern U.S. Many of Calpine’s facilities use natural gas to produce electricity. The two companies combined would own almost 60 GW of nuclear, natural gas, geothermal, hydro, wind, solar, cogeneration, and battery storage. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) signed off on the deal in July, with conditions (see